San Marino vs Sat 26 Sept16:00 Scheduled
Finland — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
San Marino vs Finland — the facts
San Marino meet Finland in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Team pages: San Marino · Finland · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
San Marino 12% · Draw 15% · Finland 73%
Finland's rating gap outweighs San Marino's home ground — Finland are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Finland's 73%. The draw at 15% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Finland at 73%?
Finland sit 842 points higher on our strength rating — 770 to 1612. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge on the road won 65.9% of 5,262 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 11–16–73.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 73% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and San Marino at 12%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Finland have averaged 19 percentage points more possession than San Marino in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. San Marino (8 fully-tracked matches with us) and Finland (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for San Marino vs Finland, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the San Marino and Finland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does San Marino vs Finland kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch San Marino vs Finland goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.