Match report
Albania open their promotion bid with a win
Albania's League C campaign began with a 2-0 home win over Belarus, giving Maran a winning start to his Nations League campaign. Kristjan Asllani converted a first-half penalty before Ernest Muçi doubled the lead in added time. Captain Berat Gjimshiti had spoken of winning the group; with the C1 winner promoted directly to League B, these opening three points put that aim in motion, though five group games remain.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Albania had their two-goal cushion by half-time and kept it through the second half. Belarus could not find the goal that would have put the hosts under late scoreboard pressure, leaving Albania with a clean sheet to accompany their opening three points.
Finland's 7-0 win over San Marino on the same opening night leaves Albania second in Group C1 on goal difference after one round. Belarus have no points, but neither side's place is settled in a six-match group. Albania visit San Marino and Belarus go to Finland on 29 September; the next round gives Maran's team an early chance to keep pace in the promotion race.
Report sources
Albania beat Belarus 2–0 (half-time 2–0).
Albania met Belarus in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Arena Kombëtare. Referee: Samuel Barrott.
Team pages: Albania · Belarus · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 34' Goal (penalty): Kristjan Asllani — 1–0
- 45+2' Goal: Ernest Muçi (assist: Elseid Hysaj) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
Albania (4-3-3)
Belarus (4-2-3-1)
- 21 Fedor Lapoukhov
- 2 K. Pechenin
- 3 Ivan Tikhomirov
- 20 Zakhar Volkov
- 5 Vladislav Kalinin
- 8 Aleksandr Selyava
- 9 Max Ebong
- 18 Evgeni Malashevich
- 10 Valeri Gromyko
- 22 Artem Kontsevoy
- 11 German Barkovskiy
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Albania 66%, the draw 21%, Belarus 13%. It finished Albania 2–0 Belarus.
Albania's rating gap decides it — Albania are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Albania's 66%. The draw at 21% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Albania at 66%?
Albania sit 178 points higher on our strength rating — 1643 to 1465. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 6,589 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–26–13.
Why only 66%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 66% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Belarus at 13%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.3% of 27,938. The goals environment adds 1.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Albania have averaged 18 percentage points more possession than Belarus in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Albania (12 fully-tracked matches with us) and Belarus (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Albania vs Belarus final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Albania 2–0 Belarus. Explore more on the Albania and Belarus team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.