Match preview
Slovakia vs Moldova — the facts
Slovakia meet Moldova in the UEFA Nations League (1). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Team pages: Slovakia · Moldova · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Slovakia 76% · Draw 15% · Moldova 9%
Slovakia's rating gap decides it — Slovakia are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Slovakia's 76%. The draw at 15% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Slovakia at 76%?
Slovakia sit 367 points higher on our strength rating — 1664 to 1297. Sides with a more than 300-point rating edge at home won 79.8% of 5,145 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 73–17–10.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 76% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Moldova at 9%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Slovakia have averaged 14 percentage points more possession than Moldova in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Slovakia (11 fully-tracked matches with us) and Moldova (8) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Slovakia vs Moldova, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Slovakia and Moldova team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.
Quick answers
›What time does Slovakia vs Moldova kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC, a UEFA Nations League fixture (matchday 1).
›Where can I watch Slovakia vs Moldova goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.