Czech Republic vs 26.09.26 18:451 – 2Full Time
Croatia — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Croatia's new chapter starts with an away win
Croatia opened their 2026/27 Nations League campaign with a 2–1 win away to Czechia, giving Slaven Bilić a victory in his first match back in charge. In a League A group that also contains Spain and England, the three points give Croatia an early foothold; Czechia's return to the top league begins with a home defeat.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
After a goalless first half, Luka Modrić put Croatia ahead just after the restart. Adam Karabec brought Czechia level seven minutes later, but substitute Marco Pašalić headed in Ivan Perišić's cross in the 77th minute to restore Croatia's lead. A Matěj Radosta goal was then ruled out for offside after a VAR review, leaving the Czech response one goal short.
The result gives Croatia a better starting position in a group where the top two reach the quarter-finals, though one match settles nothing. Czechia had earned promotion by winning League B Group 1 last time; after matching Croatia's first goal, they must now find points in a group shared with two other major opponents.
Report sources
Croatia won 2–1 away against Czech Republic (half-time 0–0).
Czech Republic met Croatia in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Sinobo Stadium. Referee: Simone Sozza.
Team pages: Czech Republic · Croatia · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 47' Goal: Luka Modrić (assist: Igor Matanović) — 0–1 · Watch Luka Modrić's goal video (47')
- 54' Goal: Adam Karabec (assist: Adam Hložek) — 1–1 · Watch Adam Karabec's goal video (54')
- 77' Goal: Marco Pasalic (assist: Ivan Perišić) — 1–2 · Watch Marco Pasalic's goal video (77')
Starting line-ups
Czech Republic (4-2-3-1)
Croatia (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Czech Republic 22%, the draw 21%, Croatia 57%. It finished Czech Republic 1–2 Croatia.
Croatia's rating gap outweighs Czech Republic's home ground — Croatia are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Croatia's 57%. The draw at 21% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Croatia at 57%?
Croatia sit 232 points higher on our strength rating — 1664 to 1895. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 51.0% of 6,683 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 21–20–59.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Czech Republic at 22%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 21.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,174.
What did we measure but not count?
Croatia have averaged 15 percentage points more possession than Czech Republic in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Czech Republic have shed 74 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,519 such games vs 33.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Czech Republic vs Croatia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Luka Modrić's goal against Czech Republic (47').
- Watch Adam Karabec's goal against Croatia (54').
- Watch Marco Pasalic's goal against Czech Republic (77').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Czech Republic 1–2 Croatia. Explore more on the Czech Republic and Croatia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.