Bulgaria vs 26.09.26 16:001 – 2Full Time
Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Luxembourg turn Bulgaria's lead into a winning start in League C
Luxembourg turned a one-goal deficit into a 2-1 win away to Bulgaria, giving the visitors three points at the start of League C Group 4. Asen Chandarov put Bulgaria ahead, but Leandro Barreiro equalised before half-time and Vincent Thill supplied the second-half winner. The response matters in a group where only the winner is promoted directly to League B.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Bulgaria still threatened a second goal: Sportal reported two near misses in quick succession after the break, including a Lucas Petkov header narrowly wide from a corner. Thill then scored with a shot after a Luxembourg corner. Bulgaria coach Aleksandar Dimitrov said his side dropped deeper after taking the lead and ceded the initiative; Luxembourg coach Jeff Strasser said his team had prepared well and created more attempts at goal.
Luxembourg lost 1-0 at home to Bulgaria in their last Nations League meeting in November 2024. This opener reverses that result and gives them a winning start to a group that also includes Iceland and Estonia. Bulgaria have five matches left to respond, but have already surrendered a home lead and the chance to start with three points.
Report sources
- ESPN: Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg final score and match statistics
- UEFA: Bulgaria–Luxembourg match updates
- UEFA: 2026/27 Nations League groups and promotion rules
- UEFA: Luxembourg 0–1 Bulgaria, November 2024 full-time report
- Sportal: Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg match report
- Sportal: Jeff Strasser post-match reaction
- Sportal: Aleksandar Dimitrov post-match reaction
Luxembourg won 2–1 away against Bulgaria (half-time 1–1).
Bulgaria met Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC at Stadion Hristo Botev (Gabrovo). Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Team pages: Bulgaria · Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 18' Goal: Asen Chandarov (assist: Dimitar Velkovski) — 1–0 · Watch Asen Chandarov's goal video (18')
- 37' Goal: Leandro Barreiro — 1–1 · Watch Leandro Barreiro's goal video (37')
- 65' Goal: Vincent Thill — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Bulgaria (4-2-3-1)
Luxembourg (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bulgaria 39%, the draw 27%, Luxembourg 34%. It finished Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg.
Level sides, home ground holds off Luxembourg's cold finishing due to recover — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Bulgaria's 39% is home ground and little else. The draw at 27% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Bulgaria in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1449 to 1462. Sides this close won 42.9% of 14,739 home games (draw 26.8%, visitors 30.3%).
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Luxembourg sit -0.39 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.7% of 1,319 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,174.
What did we measure but not count?
A 16-point possession gap between near-equal sides is unusual. Gaps this extreme are too rare to receipt — around 368 measured games, under our 300-game floor — so it's noted at 0 points. Bulgaria (6 fully-tracked matches with us) and Luxembourg (6) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bulgaria vs Luxembourg final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Asen Chandarov's goal against Luxembourg (18').
- Watch Leandro Barreiro's goal against Bulgaria (37').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg. Explore more on the Bulgaria and Luxembourg team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.