Match report
Bastoni cancels out Olise strike as 10-man France held by Italy
France and Italy shared the points in a 1-1 draw at Stade de France, a result that kept the hosts top of their UEFA Nations League group despite finishing the match with ten men. The contest produced two goals, the first arriving only in the second half after a goalless opening period.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Michael Olise broke the deadlock in the 55th minute, finishing after being set up by Rayan Cherki to give France the lead. Italy responded thirteen minutes later when Alessandro Bastoni levelled the scoring at 1-1, settling the contest's eventual outcome. France's task then grew harder when Dayotchanculle Upamecano was sent off in the 85th minute, leaving the hosts to see out the closing stages a man short.
France dominated possession with 65 percent of the ball and produced 18 shots to Italy's 14, eight of them on target compared to just two for the visitors, reflecting the territorial grip Zidane's side held even before the red card. The draw left France on 7 points at the top of the group after three matches, with Italy third on 4.
Olise scored France's opener and was rated the match's top performer at 8.2, with Cherki's assist setting up the goal that briefly put the hosts ahead.
France's 65 percent possession underlined their control of the game for long periods before the sending-off.
France and Italy drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
France met Italy in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade de France. Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano.
Team pages: France · Italy · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: Michael Olise (assist: Rayan Cherki) — 1–0 · Watch Michael Olise's goal video (55')
- 68' Goal: Alessandro Bastoni — 1–1 · Watch Alessandro Bastoni's goal video (68')
- 85' Red card: Dayotchanculle Upamecano
Starting line-ups
France (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave France 69%, the draw 17%, Italy 14%. It finished France 1–1 Italy.
France's rating gap decides it — France are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of France's 69%. The draw at 17% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why France at 69%?
France sit 228 points higher on our strength rating — 2084 to 1856. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,607 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 68–18–14.
Why only 69%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 69% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 17% and Italy at 14%.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,787. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
France are 2 games into a new manager (Z. Zidane), appointed 31 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. France (22 fully-tracked matches with us) and Italy (16) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the France vs Italy final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Michael Olise's goal against Italy (55').
- Watch Alessandro Bastoni's goal against France (68').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from France 1–1 Italy. Explore more on the France and Italy team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.