Match report
Estonia recover from missed penalty to deny Iceland an opening win
Estonia earned a point away from home in their Nations League C4 opener after recovering from a missed penalty to draw 1–1 with Iceland. Andri Guðjohnsen had put the hosts ahead just before half-time, but Maksim Paskotši's equaliser gave Estonia a way back. Iceland began the group with a home draw despite producing far more shots.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
Iceland's 19 shots to Estonia's eight show the hosts' pressure, but Estonia coach Henn felt his side had two or three clear chances and was satisfied with the away point. Rasmus Peetson credited disciplined defending for limiting Iceland's clear openings. Estonia had to recover from Hákon Valdimarsson's save of Palumets's penalty before Peetson crossed for Paskotši to head in the equaliser twelve minutes later.
There is little room to dwell on it in a six-match group: Iceland visit Luxembourg and Estonia visit Bulgaria on Tuesday. UEFA's rules promote the League C group winner directly to League B, while second place enters a promotion play-off. Both sides have a point, but Iceland must make up for a missed home win on the road, and Estonia can build on a recovery in Iceland.
Report sources
- UEFA: Iceland–Estonia live match page and timeline
- Sky Sports: Iceland vs Estonia result and statistics
- ERR: Estonia fought out a draw in Iceland
- ERR: Henn reacts to Estonia's chances
- ERR: Peetson and Paskotši react
- UEFA: 2026/27 Nations League fixtures by team
- UEFA: 2026/27 Nations League format and promotion rules
Iceland and Estonia drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Iceland met Estonia in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 16:00 UTC at Laugardalsvöllur. Referee: Milos Milanovic.
Team pages: Iceland · Estonia · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Andri Guðjohnsen (assist: Hákon Haraldsson) — 1–0 · Watch Andri Guðjohnsen's goal video (45')
- 64' Goal: Maksim Paskotši (assist: Rasmus Peetson) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Iceland (4-4-2)
Estonia (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Iceland 68%, the draw 18%, Estonia 14%. It finished Iceland 1–1 Estonia.
Iceland's rating gap decides it — Iceland are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Iceland's 68%. The draw at 18% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Iceland at 68%?
Iceland sit 190 points higher on our strength rating — 1535 to 1345. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 6,589 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 67–19–14.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Estonia at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,254. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Iceland have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Estonia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Iceland scored +0.78 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,826 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.7% vs 42.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Iceland vs Estonia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Iceland 1–1 Estonia. Explore more on the Iceland and Estonia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.