Match report
João Félix strike gives Portugal narrow win over Wales
Portugal defeated Wales 1-0 in a UEFA Nations League League A Group 4 fixture, with the only goal coming midway through the first half. João Félix converted from Nuno Mendes's assist in the 22nd minute, and that strike proved enough to settle the contest at the interval and through to full time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Portugal dominated the game territorially and in terms of chances created, finishing with 23 shots to Wales's 5 and holding 61 percent of possession. Despite that overwhelming control, Jorge Jesus's side could not add to their tally after Félix's opener, with Wales's goalkeeper and defence limiting further damage in the second half.
Wales offered little in attack, managing just one shot on target across the match, while picking up a solitary yellow card compared to none for Portugal. The result lifted Portugal to second in the group standings on three points, while Wales remained fourth with none from their opening match.
João Félix scored the decisive goal and earned the highest rating on the pitch at 8.2, capping a productive afternoon in front of goal for Portugal.
Portugal's 23 shots to Wales's 5 underlined how one-sided the contest was in terms of attacking output.
Portugal beat Wales 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Portugal met Wales in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1). Kick-off was Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Estádio José Alvalade. Referee: Donatas Rumsas.
Team pages: Portugal · Wales · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 22' Goal: João Félix (assist: Nuno Mendes) — 1–0 · Watch João Félix's goal video (22')
Starting line-ups
Portugal (4-1-3-2)
Wales (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Portugal 80%, the draw 12%, Wales 8%. It finished Portugal 1–0 Wales.
Portugal's rating gap decides it — Portugal are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Portugal's 80%. The draw at 12% is down from the usual 13.5% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Portugal at 80%?
Portugal sit 264 points higher on our strength rating — 1966 to 1702. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.4% of 5,542 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 78–14–8.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 80% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 12% and Wales at 8%.
Why is the draw only 12%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 13.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.9% of 17,245. The goals environment takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Portugal (16 fully-tracked matches with us) and Wales (9) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Portugal vs Wales final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Portugal 1–0 Wales. Explore more on the Portugal and Wales team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.