Netherlands vs 24.09.26 18:451 – 1Full Time
Germany — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Gakpo's stoppage-time leveller denies Germany win over Netherlands
Netherlands and Germany shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Nations League, League A - Group 2, as Cody Gakpo's stoppage-time equaliser denied the visitors a victory they had led for much of the contest.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Germany went ahead in the 32nd minute when Felix Nmecha finished from Karim-David Adeyemi's assist, and that scoreline held through half-time and deep into the second half. The Netherlands pressed for an equaliser, dominating the ball and territory, but were unable to find a breakthrough until deep into stoppage time.
With the clock showing the 90+2nd minute, Gakpo converted after being set up by Ruben van Bommel to snatch a point for the hosts. The result left the Netherlands third and Germany second in the group table, both sides on one point after a single match played.
Felix Nmecha scored the opening goal from Adeyemi's assist and posted the highest rating on the pitch at 7.91, capping a productive display for Germany.
The Netherlands dominated territorially, out-shooting Germany 22 to 10 and winning 12 corners to just one.
Netherlands and Germany drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Netherlands met Germany in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1). Kick-off was Thursday, 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Johan Cruijff Arena. Referee: Alejandro Hernandez.
Team pages: Netherlands · Germany · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 32' Goal: Felix Nmecha (assist: Karim-David Adeyemi) — 0–1 · Watch Felix Nmecha's goal video (32')
- 90+2' Goal: Cody Gakpo (assist: Ruben van Bommel) — 1–1 · Watch Cody Gakpo's goal video (90+2')
Starting line-ups
Netherlands (4-2-3-1)
Germany (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Netherlands 51%, the draw 22%, Germany 27%. It finished Netherlands 1–1 Germany.
A slight rating edge to Netherlands, little else — Netherlands are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and Germany's hot finishing due to cool on top gives Netherlands the lean. The draw at 22% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Netherlands at 51%?
Netherlands sit 44 points higher on our strength rating — 1976 to 1932. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.2% of 10,304 such games. Germany scored +0.64 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 26.8% of 1,431 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 51%?
Germany hold 8 more possession points (70 to 62 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.1% across 5,445 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Netherlands scored +1.02 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 29.2% of 1,442 games, vs 27.5% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.9% of 17,245. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Netherlands (18 fully-tracked matches with us) and Germany (15) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Netherlands vs Germany final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Felix Nmecha's goal against Netherlands (32').
- Watch Cody Gakpo's goal against Germany (90+2').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Netherlands 1–1 Germany. Explore more on the Netherlands and Germany team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.