Match report
Spain's second-half changes turn England's lead into a Wembley defeat
England's return to Nations League A began with a painful reminder of Spain's depth. The newly crowned world champions won 3-2 at Wembley after trailing 2-1 at half-time, turning what had looked like a strong opening statement from Thomas Tuchel's side into three points of their own in Group A3.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data and the sources linked below.
England had recovered from Lamine Yamal's second-minute opener through Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane, then had a chance to stretch their lead after the break. Kane slipped and hit the bar with a penalty early in the second half. Spain introduced Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal soon afterwards; Baena equalised, then supplied Oyarzabal for the winner. The missed chance mattered, but the two substitutes also gave Spain the goals to turn the game on its own terms.
This was a significant first test for both teams after the World Cup: Spain arrived as champions, while England were back among the Nations League's top-tier sides. Spain start with a win away to a direct Group A3 rival; England must recover across the remaining group fixtures, with the top two due to reach the quarter-finals.
Report sources
Spain won 3–2 away against England (half-time 2–1).
England met Spain in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Wembley Stadium. Referee: Davide Massa.
Team pages: England · Spain · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 2' Goal: Lamine Yamal — 0–1 · Watch Lamine Yamal's goal video (2')
- 36' Goal: Anthony Gordon (assist: Jude Bellingham) — 1–1 · Watch Anthony Gordon's goal video (36')
- 40' Goal: Harry Kane (assist: Nico O'Reilly) — 2–1 · Watch Harry Kane's goal video (40')
- 60' Goal: Álex Baena (assist: Dani Olmo) — 2–2 · Watch Álex Baena's goal video (60')
- 74' Goal: Mikel Oyarzabal (assist: Álex Baena) — 2–3 · Watch Mikel Oyarzabal's goal video (74')
Starting line-ups
England (4-2-3-1)
Spain (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave England 28%, the draw 27%, Spain 45%. It finished England 2–3 Spain.
Spain's rating edge outweighs England's home ground — Spain are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their cold finishing due to recover plus their control of the ball on top give Spain the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Spain at 45%?
Spain sit 110 points higher on our strength rating — 2051 to 2161. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.2% of 13,711 such games. Spain sit -0.37 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.6% of 2,472 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. Spain hold 8 more possession points (65 to 57 in recent games) across a 110-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,529 such games where the class table expected 40.8%. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–19–46.
Why only 45%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 45% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and England at 28%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,174.
What did we measure but not count?
England scored +0.70 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,826 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.7% vs 42.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. England (23 fully-tracked matches with us) and Spain (21) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the England vs Spain final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Lamine Yamal's goal against England (2').
- Watch Anthony Gordon's goal against Spain (36').
- Watch Harry Kane's goal against Spain (40').
- Watch Álex Baena's goal against England (60').
- Watch Mikel Oyarzabal's goal against England (74').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from England 2–3 Spain. Explore more on the England and Spain team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.